PROJECT 24Advanced

Campaign Effectiveness Analysis

Awaiting founder definition

The founder brief mentions "Campaign Analysis 40%". The meaning of 40% (budget share, uplift threshold, discount level, attribution weight?) is not defined, so it is not applied here. Standard incrementality analysis is used until the rule is supplied.

The scenario and data are provided, but tasks that depend on the undefined business rule are marked and must not be assumed.

Business scenario

Marketing spent heavily on Black Friday and summer sales. Finance asks which campaigns paid back.

Problem statement

Estimate the incremental revenue and gross margin of each campaign against a baseline, net of discount cost and budget.

Learning objectives

Construct a credible baseline
Estimate incremental margin, not just revenue
Detect pull-forward effects

Instructions

Baseline: same days in the prior year scaled by the growth rate of non-campaign weeks, or the 4 weeks before/after excluding other campaigns. Margin = net revenue − unit_cost × quantity. ROI = (incremental margin − budget) ÷ budget.

Tasks

Daily revenue and margin series with campaign flags.
Baseline per campaign; incremental revenue and margin.
Discount cost estimate.
Post-campaign dip (pull-forward) check.
ROI table and recommendation for 2026.

Deliverables

Analysis
ROI table
Recommendation

Evaluation rubric

Criterion	Weight	Excellent	Proficient	Developing	Insufficient
Baseline design	25%	Credible, explained, confounders addressed.	Correct and complete with minor gaps in rigour or presentation.	Partly correct; important steps missing, unvalidated or unclear.	Missing, incorrect, or not supported by the data.
Margin & ROI	25%	Correct incremental margin and ROI.	Correct and complete with minor gaps in rigour or presentation.	Partly correct; important steps missing, unvalidated or unclear.	Missing, incorrect, or not supported by the data.
Data preparation & validation	20%	Correct filters and grain; validation checks documented and totals reconciled.	Correct and complete with minor gaps in rigour or presentation.	Partly correct; important steps missing, unvalidated or unclear.	Missing, incorrect, or not supported by the data.
Interpretation & recommendations	20%	Clear keep/stop/modify decisions.	Correct and complete with minor gaps in rigour or presentation.	Partly correct; important steps missing, unvalidated or unclear.	Missing, incorrect, or not supported by the data.
Presentation	10%	Clear.	Correct and complete with minor gaps in rigour or presentation.	Partly correct; important steps missing, unvalidated or unclear.	Missing, incorrect, or not supported by the data.